Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.193844 2.315763 2.447377 2.601278 2.778006 2.976795 3.220616
2025-06-01 2.044918 2.198192 2.370752 2.582671 2.840842 3.152415 3.569659
2025-06-08 1.939221 2.110408 2.308812 2.561242 2.882890 3.293821 3.888286
2025-06-15 1.879305 2.067270 2.290789 2.584538 2.975261 3.504032 4.336402
2025-06-22 1.782378 1.971580 2.199620 2.504575 2.919988 3.501267 4.465478
2025-06-29 1.732243 1.929063 2.170218 2.499781 2.962602 3.639558 4.848443
2025-07-06 1.668084 1.865211 2.109182 2.447122 2.931008 3.659767 5.030167
2025-07-13 1.646957 1.853772 2.113960 2.482510 3.027924 3.892850 5.686594
2025-07-20 1.640126 1.859553 2.140686 2.549189 3.177721 4.240641 6.766639
2025-07-27 1.610673 1.834345 2.124180 2.552187 3.227682 4.421625 7.572922
2025-08-03 1.584015 1.811447 2.109273 2.555835 3.278136 4.612878 8.574677
2025-08-10 1.537099 1.760042 2.052944 2.494230 3.213604 4.562443 8.735724
2025-08-17 1.507876 1.732411 2.029969 2.484036 3.240092 4.716255 9.890502
2025-08-24 1.479181 1.704373 2.005041 2.469003 3.256243 4.851785 11.222733
2025-08-31 1.451302 1.676434 1.978977 2.450417 3.263888 4.970258 12.781177
2025-09-07 1.437723 1.667242 1.978834 2.471972 3.346367 5.290448 17.116056
2025-09-14 1.396667 1.619357 1.921546 2.399476 3.245883 5.122760 16.371101
2025-09-21 1.377960 1.601638 1.907144 2.395199 3.275194 5.306369 20.990650
2025-09-28 1.347398 1.566838 1.866922 2.347217 3.216175 5.237527 21.775332
2025-10-05 1.341495 1.565866 1.875755 2.379522 3.317326 5.651053 46.029194
2025-10-12 1.343548 1.575878 1.900911 2.440233 3.483908 6.351536 NaN
2025-10-19 1.329915 1.563446 1.892153 2.442963 3.529447 6.675568 NaN
2025-10-26 1.317065 1.551758 1.884056 2.446281 3.576644 7.035265 NaN